Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Who Wants to be the 2012 Republican Nominee for President?

2012? Why is Mr. Gilkerson talking about 2012? It's only 2011! The 2012 presidential election is almost fifteen months away! "Mr. G, why are you talking about Republicans in 2012 when we won't even be in your class when this election takes place?", you may be asking. You may also be asking "Does he always refer to himself in the third person?"

In answer to your questions, no, I don't always refer to myself in the third person...only when I want to feel special. But more importantly...yes, the 2012 GENERAL election is fifteen months away, but the PRIMARY elections are only eight months away! "What's a primary election?" That's a fantastic question! Think of primary elections as playoff elections. They take place within a political party months before the regular election in order to choose (hopefully) the best candidate for that party. And the campaigning for the Republican nomination has already begun! Several debates have already been held, websites have been set up, bumper stickers sent out, and the money is flowing in!

So, who wants to be the Republican nominee for president? Who has the guts to go up against Barack Obama, vying for the most powerful person in the free world? Actually, quite a few folks have either tossed their hats into the ring, or are seriously looking or being considered for it. Let's take a look at the top 12 candidates for '12 (woo, numerical symmetry...that's nice):

- Michele Bachmann, congresswoman from Minnesota. Bachmann is a big favorite among the Tea Party crowd...however, she is seen as too conservative amongst most Republicans.

- Herman Cain, former CEO of Godfather's Pizza and radio talk show host from Georgia. A long shot, but has been gaining steady ground in the last couple of weeks. While he has little experience in politics, that may be an advantage, building off the year of the anti-incumbent from the 2010 congressional elections. In addition, he is an African-American running in a party that has been seen as being anti-minority. However, I'm still gonna call him a long shot.

- Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House from Georgia. This is a BIG name. You kiddies are probably too young, but Gingrich was once the most powerful Republican in D.C. He was also the chief pursuer of Bill Clinton during the Monica Lewinsky scandal back in the '90's. But that's the problem. Newt hasn't been involved in politics since then...plus it doesn't help his image that he is on his third wife after cheating on the previous two.

- Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City. While he hasn't declared that he's running, this is still a big name that would attract almost immediate support. However, he's already run once in 2008, but gambled badly with his campaign and was out of the race in almost a month.

- Jon Huntsman, Jr, former ambassador to China and governor of Utah. Another long shot, his name is gaining some ground here lately as a person who can appeal to independents and a few liberals as well.

- Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico. Now this is an interesting possibility. Johnson is not your typical Republican. He's actually a libertarian rather than a conservative. He's opposed the War on Terror, the Iraq War, and the American intervention in Libya. He supports civil unions for homosexual couples, legalizing marijuana, drastically reducing both government spending and taxation. Johnson could certainly attract a lot of support, though his biggest obstacle will be....

- Ron Paul, congressman from Texas. Paul is the other major libertarian candidate in the Republican race. Paul is a darling of the libertarian movement, staying true to his beliefs and not willing to compromise and tow the Republican Party line. Nicknamed "Dr. No" for his routine votes against ANYTHING that is not specifically authorized by the Constitution, from the Patriot Act to health care reform to American inclusion in the United Nations. Paul ran in 2008, gathering a significant amount of support, and also proved his abilities at fundraising. His biggest problems: he refuses to tow the party line and is seen as too intellectual and too far outside the mainstream for most Americans.

- Sarah Palin, former Vice-President candidate and governor from Alaksa...and now apparently a reality TV star. Palin has not formally entered the race, but it is largely expected that she will. Palin will no doubt gain a lot of support...but is seen as a laughing stock by almost all non-die hard conservative Republicans. But hey....at least she can see Russia!

- Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota. Keep an eye on this one, I believe he's going far. Pawlenty was seen as a centrist as governor of Minnesota, (though his statements now are doing a 180 from his previous positions). Pawlenty can certainly get support across the spectrum...if people actually know his name.

- Rick Perry, governor of Texas. Perry had originally said he wasn't interested. However, after the withdrawals of Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, and Mitch Daniels, Perry has shown renewed interest. Another favorite of the Tea Party, Perry's biggest obstacle is himself. He's seen as too boasfult, as well as that bit where he said Texas might be better off seceding from the Union and forming their own country.

- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts. At this point, most political commentators are saying that this is Romeny's race to lose. At this point, I'd say most political commentators are idiots. Yes, Romney's name is on top of most polls at this point, but polling eight months out means absolutely diddly-doo. Romney's advantages include name recognition and an ability to appeal to moderates. However, his biggest disadvantage: while governor of Massachusetts, he signed into law a bill VERY similar to the "ObamaCare" health care reform bill. Romney is going to have a very hard time convincing conservatives that he truly is a conservative himself.

- Rick Santorum, former senator from Pennsylvania. Gonna go ahead and say that Santorum really has no chance in this. Santorum has little name recognition, and what he does have is largely negative. He is seen as being very conservative, has stated that he does NOT believe the Constitution protects a right to privacy, and supports the teaching of intelligent design in public schools.

So there they are. The current 12 for '12. So my question for you: Who do you think will get the Republican nomination? NOT who you want to be nominated, but who do you think will get it? Will it be a big name or a dark horse? Conservative, libertarian, or Tea Partier? Somebody who's not even been mentioned yet? Share your responses, comments, rants, random trivia below!

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